DCCC Looking at 5th District
Democrats target Ferguson by tying him to the president
Sunday, December 18, 2005
BY J. SCOTT ORRSTAR-LEDGER WASHINGTON BUREAU WASHINGTON
-- He represents a strongly Republican district, has been re-elected twice by solid majorities and expects to spend more than $2 million on his 2006 campaign. It's hard to see Rep. Michael Ferguson (R-7th Dist.) as vulnerable. Yet the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says he's one of its top targets in next year's election. For months, the committee has attacked Ferguson in news releases that portray him as a disciple of the Bush administration and ally of Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), the former Republican House leader charged with breaking campaign finance laws.
As Democrats hope to capitalize on the drop in President Bush's popularity and legal woes of other prominent Republicans, they are looking at seats like Ferguson's with renewed optimism. "He is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House," said DCCC spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod. The GOP's problems "create a difficult environment for all Republicans, making every Republican-held seat vulnerable," she said. Ferguson scoffs at any notion he's in jeopardy, and says the Democrats are exaggerating their chances of regaining control of the House. "This is the same thing they did last time, and the time before that," said Ferguson, who was first elected in 2000. "They're playing a numbers game because it doesn't help for them to say they're going to take back two or three seats, they have to say they're going to win back control." Republicans control the House, 232-202, meaning Democrats would have to take 16 Republican seats and retain all their own to regain the majority.
Amy Walter, an analyst with the non-partisan newsletter Cook Political Report, said those numbers have led the Democrats to target Republicans like Ferguson whose districts are comfortable, but perhaps not totally safe. "Ferguson's is not an easy seat for Democrats to pick up by any means, but it is certainly a more receptive district than many in the country," Walter said. She added that the political terrain in 2006 likely will be "the best Democrats have had in a very long time." But she noted Ferguson's seat probably ranks far below the top Democratic opportunities, such as the 18 Republican-controlled districts that backed Democrat John Kerry over Bush in 2004.
There also are 27 Republican incumbents who won in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote or less. Ferguson won with 57 percent, and his district went for Bush. Still, David Rebovich, a political scientist at Rider University, said Ferguson is less secure than other New Jersey House members. The other five Republicans and six Democrats are pretty much locks to win re-election, he said. (Democrat Rep. Robert Menendez's move to the Senate creates an open seat, but his district is solidly Democratic.) "If the Democrats are willing to fund someone, they could make a run (against Ferguson)," Rebovich said. "The Democrats are constantly sending e-mails to folks here criticizing him, but it takes more than e-mails to unseat an incumbent who has won consistently."
The 7th District stretches across Central Jersey from Holland Township on the Delaware River through suburban areas of Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex and Union counties to Woodbridge. Two Democrats have announced they're seeking the party's nomination to oppose Ferguson: Assemblywoman Linda Stender, a former freeholder and Fanwood mayor, and Joe Tricarico, former mayor of Hillsborough. Stephen Brozak, an Iraq War veteran who challenged Ferguson in 2004, said there is no way to knock off the incumbent without the national party kicking in significant cash. "If they're serious about this, they're going to have to walk the walk and not just talk the talk," Brozak said. Elrod refused to say if the DCCC planned to invest money in Ferguson's district or anywhere else in the state. She said the committee is also closely watching the 5th District, where Paul Aronsohn, a one-time aide to former Gov. James E. McGreevey, is challenging Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. Garrett is considered even more secure than Ferguson, having won by 17 points in 2004.
Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University, said all of New Jersey's congressmen "are so firmly established that it really would take a major personal scandal to dislodge any of the incumbents." Ferguson isn't sweating. "I feel very favorable about the election," Ferguson said. "But I don't take anything for granted." Scott Orr covers government and politics. He may be reached at sorr@starledger.com or (202) 383-7800.
