And the Winner is ……….

And the Winner is ……….
By AMOD CHOUDHARY
JerseyPolitics.com Columnist

There has been much written and discussed about the impending decision (around Dec. 4) of Gov.-elect Jon Corzine’s pick to replace him for the remainder of his U.S. Senate term.

Reps. Rob Andrews (D-NJ 1st Cong. Dist), Robert Menendez (D-NJ 13th Cong. Dist.), and Frank Pallone (D-NJ 6th Cong. Dist.) have already announced their desire to be the chosen one and helped Mr. Corzine get elected to the Governor’s position recently. All three have positioned themselves very well to replace Mr. Corzine. There have also been whispers that Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ 12th Cong. Dist.) has quietly positioned himself for consideration. Some commentators have also suggested that Mr. Corzine should also consider prominent women as his worthy successor. I believe that Congressman Holt and the women candidates lack the name recognition to be considered by Mr. Corzine at this stage.

In determining whom to pick, I would think that Mr. Corzine and his advisors would most likely consider two forward-looking factors.

A review of Mr. Corzine’s professional and political career indicates that he wants to be at pinnacle of everything he does. In that regard, he must be contemplating a run for the U.S. Presidency after his Gubernatorial term ends in 2014 (assuming reelection). If he were to take that goal as primary factor in this selection process, then easily Mr. Menendez is the person he should pick. Mr. Menendez is an attractive candidate for the obvious reasons. He is of Hispanic background, member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Chairman of the Democratic Caucus. As the results of the recent election showed, Mr. Menendez will be very helpful in getting the Hispanic votes for Mr. Corzine in a Presidential election. The Hispanic voters are expected to be even a greater force in U.S. politics in the future. If one recalls, Florida with a substantial Hispanic population helped Governor Bush become President Bush. With the high probability of President Bush’s brother—Jeb Bush eventually seeking the Presidency, it would be helpful to have someone of Mr. Menendez’s caliber on Mr. Corzine’s side in the U.S. Senate.

In the event of any election or runoff, Mr. Menendez has by far the most money. Mr. Menendez has around $4 million in campaign money, as compared to Mr. Andrews having $1.9 million, and Mr. Pallone $1.2 million.

On the other hand, if Mr. Corzine’s selection is based purely on who has the best prospects for winning Senate campaign in 2006 against the Republican State Senator Mr. Thomas Kean Jr., (son of ex-Governor Kean); Mr. Corzine has a difficult choice to make.

The second most important factor after Property Tax reform has been the ethics issue (or the lack of) for New Jersey voters. When it comes to ethics, this is where Mr. Menendez’s candidacy may suffer. Many acknowledge that Hudson County is one of the centers of corruption in the state. Mr. Menendez has been part of Hudson County politics for close to 34 years. It has also been alleged that Mr. Menendez may have improperly helped a female staffer who has become a very successful fundraiser and lobbyist with Mr. Menendez’s help. But, there has been no finding of any kind of impropriety against Mr. Menendez. With ethics being an important issue for New Jersey and in the backdrop of Mr. Kean Jr.’s candidacy, Reps. Pallone and Andrews become attractive replacement choices for Mr. Corzine.

Mr. Pallone has been in the U.S. Congress for 17 years and is the Communications Chair for the Democratic Party in the U.S. Congress. He also serves on the House Resources and Energy & Commerce Committees. These experiences will be an important quality for Rep. Pallone in tackling the Health Care, Energy and Environmental issues that face New Jersey (and the country). Also, Mr. Pallone serves a politically mixed voting constituency, where voters are apt to equally identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats. Mr. Pallone also claims that of the three suitors, his position on issues most closely align with that of Mr. Corzine.

Rep. Andrews has been in the U.S. Congress for the past 15 years, and represents predominantly Democratic leaning voters of Camden, Gloucester and Burlington Counties in Southwest New Jersey. He also serves on the House Armed Services and Education & Workforce Committees. Rep. Andrews’ biggest strength seems to be the strong showing he had against Jim McGreevey in the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary few years ago. Therefore, Mr. Andrews would be a strong candidate in the Democratic Primary in the event of his non-selection. Since all three of the candidates have said that they will run for the open seat regardless of being picked by Mr. Corzine, Mr. Andrews may have an advantage in the Democratic Primary amongst the three candidates. Unfortunately for Mr. Andrews, he voted for the U.S. invasion of Iraq (other prominent Democrats have done the same), which Mr. Corzine opposed.

In his selection Mr. Corzine has to be very careful, because regardless of whom he picks, there is a strong likelihood of a good fight in the Democratic Primary. Mr. Corzine certainly wouldn’t want to select a candidate who wins the Senate race and is not Mr. Corzine’s pick. Fortunately for New Jersey and Mr. Corzine, he has three very experienced and politically versed Representatives to choose from.

Post-Election Feedback

Post-Election Feedback
By AMOD CHOUDHARY
JerseyPolitics.com Columnist

While the Corzine victory is not surprising, the
surprise has to be the loss of incumbents Democrats
Panter and Morgan in the 12th District of Monmouth and
part of Mercer County. Also, the choice to have a
Lieutenant Governor was another surprise.

As we saw in the last few days, the poll numbers for
the Gubernatorial candidates swung from 1% for Mr.
Forrester to 8% for Mr. Corzine. The latest results
(95% precincts reporting) showed that Mr. Corzine won
the election with 53% of votes, while Mr. Forrester
received 43% of results. In my opinion, the use of
Joanne Corzine's comments may have actually hurt Mr.
Forrester and solidified support for Mr. Corzine. Mr.
Corzine received 20% more votes among women.

One might recall when the advertisements featuring
Joanne Corzine was initially aired, Mr. Forrester's
popularity increased. However, by the end of the
weekend, the numbers for Mr. Corzine improved, and the
election results even improved upon the poll results.

So, what happened? I think the solid Democratic areas
of the state voted along the expected lines. What
made the difference is that Middlesex County--a swing
County with large number of seniors and middle class
electorate bought into Mr. Corzine's plan. Although
Mr. Corzine's plan did not have a catchy slogan, it
worked for the seniors, the renters, uninsured, and
homeowners receiving property tax rebates.

I was also surprised to see the ballot initiative for
Lt. Governor approved. My reasoning was that the
state voters were tired of the state bureaucracy and
the inefficiencies of state agencies and thus would
steer clear of another elected position, but with
experiences with Messrs. Codey and Donald DiFrancesco,
the electorate thought otherwise and approved this new
position.

Let the jockeying for NJ's first Lt. Governor begin in
earnest starting tomorrow. NJ will have its first Lt.
Governor in 2009.

Finally, as I was looking at the state assembly
results, except for two other upsets throughout the
state, Messrs. Panter and Morgan were the real
surprise losers in the assembly election. Only two
years ago they had broken three decades of GOP hold in
the 12th District. Despite knowing that the State
Republicans had targeted their seats, they somehow
stumbled. These may be the reason: (i) the local
papers had endorsed the winners--Ms. Beck and Mr.
O'Scanlon, (ii) Ms. Beck and O'Scanlon were supported
by longtime ex-State Senator John Bennett, (iii) the
shore area is traditionally Republican and very
skeptical of "bosses" from the North and South of the
State. Also, Ms. Beck and O'Scanlon exploited and
highlighted this issue very well.

Finally, what might have hurt Messrs. Panter and
Morgan most may been their support of S-1701, which
was unanimously repealed by the Assembly. May be for
these two incumbents too little too late!

Perusal through Promises of NJ Gubernatorial Candidates

Perusal through Promises of NJ Gubernatorial Candidates
BY AMOD CHOUDHARY
JerseyPolitics.com Columnist

With the 2005 NJ Gubernatorial election (on November 8, in case you did not know) slightly more than a week away, and a virtual deadlock in public opinion polls between U.S. Senator Jon Corzine and businessman Doug Forrester, here is another attempt to decipher promises of the two gubernatorial candidates on major issues facing New Jersey residents. This comparison is ever so critical because of the lack of an elected governor since Jim McGreevey’s resignation on November 15, 2004. The choice made by New Jersey voters will have tremendous impact on the possible constitutional convention to reallocate and reduce property taxes, possible additional gas tax to fix the depleted state transportation fund, and the continued vibrancy of our bio-medical industry and small businesses of New Jersey.

The Doug Forrester Formula
Taxes and Housing
The most popular slogan of this year’s campaign has been “30 in 3” championed by Doug Forrester. In endorsing Doug Forrester, the Asbury Park Press has stated that “Forrester's plan to lower property taxes by 30 percent over three years appears achievable.” More precisely, each homeowner (primary home) will get 30% of its property taxes credited with an average amount of $600--1st year, $1,230--2nd year, and $1,900--3rd year as credits automatically. This rebate applies to all homeowners with a total credit cap of $5,000. For homeowners currently receiving rebates they will get credit for the higher amount between the existing rebate and the Forrester formula. The renters will continue to receive their rebates.

The “30 in 3” program will also continue existing senior and veteran deductions and will prevent increases in taxes on homes and realtors.

Forrester will also condition development subsidies with affordable housing. He promises to embrace the policy of “smart growth”, and also change the implementation of COAH—Council on Affordable Housing—policies so that affordable housing obligations of towns are not diluted. Finally, he will also continue to support affordable housing provided through the Department of Community Affairs and the New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Financing Agency.

My Take: This plan seems achievable only if we are talking about reducing property taxes, however, Mr. Forrester does not state where the savings will come from, except that anticipated revenue and savings to support the property tax plan will come from rooting out waste, fraud, abuse, and the anticipated $1.5 billion that the state revenue is expected to grow annually.

Economic Growth and Small Business
Mr. Forrester will allow small employers to buy into a State Health Benefits Plan (separate from the existing health plan for state employees), and promises not to raise any new taxes, and also possibly reduce existing corporate taxes. Forrester will only appoint qualified persons in the office of NJ Commerce, Economic Growth and Tourism Commissions. He will work towards implementing reasonable tort reform, and expand the powers of the Economic Development Authority and give it a special role and powers with the respect to the closure of Fort Monmouth. Forrester will issue an executive order that requires all regulators to more carefully consider the impact of proposed and adopted regulations on small businesses.

My Take: Most of the statements Mr. Forrester makes in this area are “promises” to look at something, or encouragement of some kind. However, (only with the other party’s help) efforts to reform tort laws are welcomed.

Education
(i) K-12
Mr. Forrester believes that with reduction in property taxes through his “30 in 3” program, School Boards can better fund their special education needs. He will require the Commissioner of Education to determine ways by which people with disabilities can be made part of regular classroom experience to enrich everyone’s experience. He will require all hospitals to issue a “New Parent Tool” kit that includes information about early childhood development. He will make teacher recruitment one of the priorities, and create a “Senior Year Plus” program, which will give high school graduates not going to college, an opportunity to get a diploma and get skills in an industry-specific area at their local community college during summer and fall after graduation. Forrester will appoint “turnaround specialist” program—modeled after a similar program in Virginia for failing urban schools. The turnaround specialists are likely to be successful principals. He also plans to create a scholarship program that will allow corporations to make tax-deductible donations to urban scholarships. The corporate scholarship is modeled after similar programs in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Forrester will encourage creation of more charter schools and collaboration between the traditional public schools and the charter schools so that best practices can be shared between the two schools.

Finally, Forrester will abolish the much-maligned School Construction Corporation (SCC) and assign the remaining tasks of the SCC to the Economic Development Authority with an advisory board of parents and educators that monitors and guides its work.

My Take: His ideas seem workable because it has been modeled after existing programs in other states. The urban scholarships and appointment of turnaround specialists are good programs that should be implemented as long as it is well thought out and carries along the major stakeholders—students, teachers and parents. Abolition of SCC is a right step if done properly, but we don’t know how effective the parent and educator advisory board will be.

(ii) Higher Education
Will appoint a higher education advocate that would report directly to the Governor, and form Corporate-Higher Education Advisory Council that ensures that corporate community’s needs are implemented through the curriculum.

My Take: will create another bureaucratic position and its staff.

Ethics
Mr. Forrester will ban pay-to-play and aggressively use Attorney General’s office to fight corruption. He will curtail use of Eminent Domain—when a town legally takes away private property for greater public good—in situations detrimental to creation of affordable housing.

My Take: As long as democracy exists in its current structure it is almost impossible to have a true Pay-to-Play ban. Unless, the Republicans gain control of the legislature, this is not going to happen.

Environment
Supports preservation of Petty’s Island in Delaware River in Southern New Jersey. Forrester wants an independent scientific evaluation before Oyster Creek Power Plant is re-licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. He also argues that license renewal period should be less than twenty years. Forrester also opposes oil drilling off the New Jersey shores. He also wants to reexamine the impact of wind turbines as a source of renewable energy, however, not outright rejecting them. He may support the wind turbines if they don’t damage the environment and are out of sight of tourists.

My Take: Opposition to offshore drilling is plausible. All other positions seem to be political posturing. Opposes Petty’s Island development possibly because a Democrat supports it, and the request to have an independent scientific evaluation for Oyster Creek is just buying time without taking any politically risky position.

Government Reform
Mr. Forrester will establish the Office of the Auditor General which will establish accounting and auditing standards for all levels of government including school boards and will have the authority to temporarily freeze State accounts and file criminal charges. Mr. Forrester claims that this would not be an additional layer of bureaucracy, but will be rather created by streamlining various investigative, auditing and legal functions under a single agency. He would eliminate the position of Secretary of State, thereby saving taxpayers $752,165. The existing useful functions of this office would be transferred to other agencies. He will also eliminate agencies such as the Crippled Children’s Commission, the Dredging Project Facilitation Task Force, the Reflectorized License Plate Selection Commission, and the Commission to Study the Implementation and Effects of the New Jersey Automobile Insurance Reform Act of 1982. He will establish minimum standards for grant programs and prohibit the Governor from appearing in state-paid advertisements. Moreover, he will work to end the practice of dual office holding. He will also ban candidate swapping and abolish the Education Commissioner’s power to overrule voters on school budget, and strengthen the Open Public Records Act (OPRA allows persons to access records held by state and other levels of government). Finally, he will require all state borrowing to be approved by voters, and end back loading of debt service.

My Take: Any and all steps to reduce waste and redundancy in the state government is welcomed, however, I am leery of another bureaucratic (Auditor General) start up.

Health Care
Mr. Forrester will propose creation of a separate risk pool for small businesses and associations. This pool would be separate from the existing State Health Benefits Program. He plans to establish a database of retail prices for most frequently used prescription drugs, similar to what New York requires. He will support a cap on punitive and non-economic damages. Through the Board of Medical Examiners will also establish best practice safe harbors for physicians who can document their adherence to best practices and eliminate secondary lawsuits against physicians with no meaningful involvement in a patient’s care or diagnosis. He will also restrict attorneys who have brought significant number of lawsuits that lacked any merit, and require hospitals to establish transparent reference price so that hospitals don’t charge different rates to a managed care organization and an individual patient. He will also require that charity care funds is distributed based on number of patients cared for and not based on hospitals politically connected. Hw will work to alleviate nursing shortage and nursing educators.

Mr. Forrester is against embryonic stem cell research because of the acute shortage of funds that would be required to fund this research.

He will appoint individuals with disabilities to State Boards, whereby their voices and concerns can be heard by the decision making authorities and will also support laws that require State Boards and authorities to include a representative from the disability community. He will expand “Meal on Wheels” grants to serve disable people regardless of age. Supports amending the state budget to prohibit seniors and persons who are disabled from being forced out of Special Benefits Program for the Aged and Disabled (PAAD) and into Medicare unless required by the federal government, because it is possible that drug benefits available under PAAD may not be available under a mandatory new Medicare drug program. Mr. Forrester plans to regularly meet with NJ Congressional delegation to prevent cuts in Medicaid and other community based services, and he will encourage private savings accounts that encourage people to save for the care of people with disabilities.

My Take: Except for Mr. Forrester’s opposition to embryonic stem cell research, he has good intentions in this arena, especially for the disabled and medical industry. Unfortunately, he doesn’t explain in detail how and from where the funds will come for the separate risk pool for health insurance purchasers.

Homeland Security
Mr. Forrester recommends schools to document their security needs and apply for assistance through the Department of Treasury funds that are otherwise awarded without notice. He recommends dissemination of state and federal guidance for purchase of materials to protect against terrorist threats and weapons that the terrorists use. He would also require thorough review of likely targets such as ports, hospitals and airports and security plans developed for them, and also wants additional security measures for the Oyster Creek Nuclear Power Plant. He will also require Security training for NJ Transit workers to identify and address threats.

Finally Forrester would install cameras at major commuter stations and will create a statewide office of Homeland Security. He wants water supply interconnection plan that would allow the Department of Environmental Protection to quickly move water from one reservoir or water body to another in a chemical or bio-terrorism emergency. Forrester would encourage private businesses to adopt the guidelines approved by the American National Standards Institute, which will help businesses to prepare for any potential disaster/emergency management.

My Take: Nothing new here.

Issues concerning Minorities
No specific views expressed.
________________________________________________________________________


The Jon Corzine Calculus
Tax
Mr. Corzine’s plan continues the present rebate system, which limits rebates to homeowners making $200,000 or less with goal to enhance more benefits to seniors. Therefore, seniors would get $1,265 –1st year and $1,685 when Corzine calculus is fully in place. According to Corzine calculus, non-senior homeowners will see their rebate increase to $750 right away and to $1,000 by year 2009. Additionally, renters will see their rebates go up to $218 (non-seniors) and $980 (seniors).

Pledged no new taxes on gasoline.

My Take: Nothing new here. Mr. Corzine has not tackled the basic problem. Again, any rebates will be higher in election year and will be reduced in non-election years. While Forrester formula seems to be beneficial for everyone across the board, the Corzine plan favors the seniors. Pledge not to raise taxes on gasoline is welcomed.

Economic Growth and Small Business
Supports a plan that will help provide equity capital for small businesses. Plans to add 40,000 new jobs that would generate $350 million in additional tax revenues for state. He will replace Commerce Commission with Office of Economic Growth and establish a NJ Trade Representative. He will expand Newark and Elizabeth port related distribution, assembly, and packaging facilities. He also supports R&D, technology transfer and job creation in stem cell and other life sciences, nanotechnology (a technology executed on scale of one billionth of a meter), renewable energy, food technologies and homeland security technologies. He will also start through a bond initiative the “Edison Innovation Fund” for improving R&D.

My Take: The plan to upgrade the distribution, assembly and packaging facilities at Newark and Elizabeth seem plausible. I am leery of creating another layer of bureaucracy. Goal should be to reallocate existing cabinet officials into the new agencies that Mr. Corzine seeks to establish.

Education
(i) K-12
In the K-12 education arena, Mr. Corzine plans to expand optional full-day kindergarten, and increase funding for high quality pre-K and after-school programs. Additionally, he will increase the rigor of key courses, such as four years of mathematics in high schools and launch “high skills partnerships” and “schools within schools”.

My Take: Good plan that will truly help NJ’s working families and increase the competitiveness of our younger students.

(ii) Higher Education
In Higher Education, Mr. Corzine wants to provide 10,000 additional Tuition Assistance Grants for low and moderate-income students, create “Serve New Jersey” and “Come Home to New Jersey” programs.

The “Server NJ” program will either forgive $1,000 in student loans or provide up to $1,000 in tax credits for New Jersey college graduates who work in the “high-need” sectors of New Jersey.

The “Come Home to NJ” program will provide up to $1,000 in tax credits for New Jersey high school students who attend colleges in other states but return to work in NJ and work in “high-need” sectors. Also plans to end the “brain drain” of New Jersey by establishing 1,000 merit based scholarship for students who attend public colleges and universities in NJ. The total award for each merit-based scholar will average about $5,000. Mr. Corzine has identified high-need sectors to be: mental health-established by Richard Codey, nursing, high school math and science teaching, child care providers and first responders, i.e., law enforcement, fire services and medical services.

Finally, Mr. Corzine will also offer tuition assistance to dependents of those who served and continue to do so in Iraq and Afghanistan.

My Take: Sounds good for the election campaign but does not really help the students or future NJ worker financially. Also, somewhat bureaucratic if one wants to receive the financial remuneration.

Ethics and Government Reform
Mr. Corzine will create a new office of elected Comptroller whose duties would be to reduce waste, and prevent and detect misconduct. Mr. Corzine also plans to end the ballyhooed pay-to-play at all levels of government. The current law applies to state and local levels (this goes in effect in 2007). The Corzine “pay-to-play” ban will include municipal contributions and legislative committees. This plan would also address developer and contractors. Finally, Mr. Corzine will ban all senior staff in the Executive Branch, which includes all deputy and assistant commissioners, and paid members of the public commissions from lobbying on issues they “substantially” worked on while at their respective government agency. There exists a one-year ban on lobbying by the Governor and the Cabinet Officers.

My Take: The Democrats have not passed a complete “pay to play” while they were control, I don’t know how it changes under Mr. Corzine. The extension of one-year lobbying ban to other officers and department heads is a good start.

Environment
Overall lauded by environmentalists, but dogged by questions regarding Corzine’s support for development of a chemical tainted Petty’s Island on the Delaware River in South Jersey, extension of license to Oyster Creek—nation’s oldest nuclear power plant and construction of entertainment complex in Meadowlands. Also supports nearly 2,500 acres of Brownfield remediation, and will make then building space and generate $60,000 jobs. He will also invest in renewable energy, reduce energy usage by updating the state’s residential and building codes, and regulate carbon as a pollutant to make NJ air cleaner.

My Take: Overall good record on this issue except for the Petty’s Island position.

Health Care
Mr. Corzine’s goal is to provide universal access to health care for children and women, creation of a buy-in program for working families at the premium of about 50% less than current existing premium in private market. Reduce overall health care cost by 10% through use of strong anti-fraud prevention methods, newer technology to reduce claims and paperwork, and promotion of preventative medicine and healthy lifestyle programs. He will also put emphasis on tracking and reducing medical errors and give consumers more rights to challenge HMO denials.

My Take: Good intentions but no real solutions such as tort reform and failure to state the source of funds for universal healthcare.

Homeland Security
Mr. Corzine will appoint a cabinet level Director of Homeland Security that will report directly to the Governor and create a bipartisan Homeland Security Commission that will be modeled after the federal 9/11 Commission and make similar recommendations to the Governor and the legislature.

My Take: Nothing new but additional workers on state payroll.

Issues concerning Minorities
Promises to have Latino representation in his administration.

Issues not discussed by both Candidates
Neither of the candidates has discussed a transportation policy that tackles the growing gridlock, bad state of roads, public transportation system, or any alternatives to growing cost of gas and fuel.

Tangible Personal Facts about the candidates
Mr. Corzine grew up in Willey’s Station, 30 miles southeast of Springfield, Illinois. As a youngster he cut weeds out of soybeans, mowed ditches and removed tassels from corn at his own and neighbors’ farms. Studied at University of Illinois—Urbana Champaign and University of Chicago, and enlisted in active U.S. Marine Corps. Joined Goldman Sachs, an investment banking, securities and investment management firm in 1975, eventually becoming CEO in 1994. He has represented New Jersey in U.S. Senate since 2000.

Personal income in 2004 was $11.8 million of which $2,278,000 was paid in federal and state income taxes. Personal income was $32 million in 2003, and $38 million in 2002.

Mr. Forrester grew up in Glendale, California. As a teenager, he earned money by selling flags and mistletoe, painting house number on curbs, and by giving swimming lessons. He studied at Harvard and Princeton Theological Seminary. He served in various NJ State Agencies and has been President of BeneCard Services, Inc—a prescription drug benefits company. He was a republican member of West Windsor Township Committee from 1979 to 1983, and served as Mayor from 1981-1982. He lost to Frank Lautenberg in the 2002 U.S. Senate race.

Personal income in 2004 was $4.4 million of which $1,558,000 was paid in federal and state income taxes. The $4.4 million income is one third of his income as compared to the prior two years.

Both candidates support use of physician prescribed marijuana, abortion rights, moratorium on death penalty (death penalty was brought back in 1982, and no one has been put to death since the reinstatement), and have also pledged to either take only $1 in Salary (Corzine) or give the $175,000 salary to charity (Forrester).